Bitcoin price prediction for 2014

Correlation between number of bitcoin addresses in use and BTC price

Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2014

This is an exploration of the possible future price of BTC with the assumption that historical price charts are an indication of future valuation of bitcoin. Short version: Buy now for $500, sell in August for $2,500.

First, let’s discuss whether the assumption of history repeating itself is realistic in the first place.

On the first chart we can see that the exponential adoption growth rate chart is correlated to BTC price charts. We can also assume that adoption of Bitcoin will only grow in the foreseeable future because related services are growing rapidly making Bitcoin more convenient and beneficial to use every month. As long as governments do not impose draconian rules against Bitcoin the huge number of investments made in startups in the last few months will show results in the next 24-48 months.

The question is whether there is still room to grow for Bitcoin or have we reached market penetration? We currently have about 150,000 bitcoin addresses used daily. It is estimated there are about 3-5 million Bitcoin users worldwide. That’s appr. 0.05% of the world population. If we assume that in the next 12 month only 10% of population is technically capable of using Bitcoin it leaves us with 700M people. If we assume that only 10% of that potential pool of people will be ideologically open to use Bitcoin, that still leaves 70 million (1%) people in the world. Let’s further reduce the number of people by 70% to account for kids and people who have no savings of any kind at all. That still leaves appr. 20,000,000 people who will may start using Bitcoin in the near future. That’s a 5 fold increase in adoption rate compared to where we stand Today. Therefore we’re still looking at possible further exponential growth of adoption in the near future.

This is logarithmic growth which is unsustainable on the long term as we would run out of adults in the world in less than 10 years. But it is sustainable and even expected of a new technology at its initial stages of adoption until market saturation is reached at which point the growth will slow down, level out and finally give in to another new technology that makes the initial technology obsolete in some way.

We’ve seen at least 3 steps in the increase of BTC price. At each step after a relative calm period of about 6-8 month the price went up several fold drastically within 1-3 months and later dropped to about half of the peak and about double of the original calm period.

After this for the next step we would require another 100+ million new people which will still be feasible as I argued in my previous post thanks to developments in the next 2 years that will open up Bitcoin for the developing world. Speculating farther than the next 2 steps becomes impossible for me because the number of new unknown variables increase drastically at each step. By 2016 we will probably have several serious competitors to Bitcoin not just in the open source world, but also cryptos created by governments and large banks.

Now that we established that further exponential adoption growth and subsequent matching price increase is possible let’s look at how that affects the price. On the second graph I fitted the price charts from two (purple) and one cycle (blue) steps before on Today’s prices. This gives us a possible future band for BTC price. The light orange area between and around the two historical scenarios is where the price will likely end up in the future.

If this prediction chart holds up by June 2014 we will see BTC to crawl back to the $600-700 range and we will see a price rally around July with the price going up all the way to over $2,500 by August or September. This may seem unreal Today, but Today’s $500 seemed unreal a year ago too. The chart also suggests that prices can go up to the $8,000 range but that would require at least 50+M new people joining Bitcoin, which may be too early. I think the price will not go beyond $3,000 this year but I could be too conservative. Next, around October the prices will start to drop all the way down to somewhere around $1,500.

So, is it time to invest into bitcoins? I certainly think so, but Bitcoin is still in early stages of its development. It’s technically in Beta at version 0.9. If you buy bitcoins only spend as much as you can afford to lose. A few percents of your savings is reasonable if not for speculation but just to learn and experience Bitcoin in action. Taking out a loan or putting all your eggs in one basket however is most certainly not.

We will see how far off I was with this analysis this coming Christmas.

Best Bitcoin Wallet Exchange Rules in Korea

How do Koreans respond to Bitcoin’s growth this year? It’s clear that the best bitcoin wallets are affected by South Korean regulations as cryptocurrency’s growth increases. This has lead to many countries viewing BTC as either an ally or threat to the national government. It will be significant to see what the South Korean government thinks about Bitcoin, as they debate how to handle exchange services in the crypto world.

Ethereum and Bitcoin Wallet Task Force

Bitcoin and Ethereum regulations pose potential risks for wallets and users everywhere.
Bitcoin and Ethereum regulations pose potential risks for wallets and users everywhere.

News reports suggest that the Koreans have established a new digital currency task force. This seems like something that the country takes very seriously, and thus has even established its own department for. In recent times, the country has been a source of tech giants like Samsung. They’ve kept up with recent trends in smartphone technology, so it’s no surprise for Korea to take a huge interest in digital currency like the best bitcoin wallet. The first meeting of this Bitcoin task force is set to take place this month, and they will work to introduce a brand new set of regulations for digital currency like Bitcoin and Ethereum wallet.

The task force will have multiple meetings where hearings take place. Even the Bank of Korea will be present! Some users believe that the BitLicense or Japan’s regulations will be used as a base model for Korea’s initiative. However, we hope that isn’t the case. After all, BitLicense doesn’t help cryptocurrency much. One of the motivators for South Korea to announce regulations is to prevent people from laundering money with Bitcoin and ethereum wallet outside of the country. It’s no surprise that people have been caught with laundering BTC for cash, which FBI investigators have caught onto. LocalBitcoins is one well-known organization which people can trade cash for the best bitcoin wallet BTCs. As a result, Korean officials are worried about capital outflow out of the country and into others.

South Korea pursuing Bitcoin Blockchain Applications

A woman in Korea ponders the Bitcoin wallet ATM machine.
A woman in Korea ponders the Bitcoin wallet ATM machine.

However, SK has been pursuing the use of the blockchain in real world applications. In particular, the banks of Korea have partnered up with payment providers interested in blockchain and Bitcoin technology in order to process remittances. The blockchain has proven itself to be valuable. When there needs to be transparency in financial systems, Ethereum’s smart contracts can take over. In other cases, Bitcoin’s blockchain is enough to facilitate the transparency desired. There are also a number of startup companies in Korea which seek to help newbies get into the digital money world. Ethereum wallet trading is advertised on their company’s slogan, too.

Korean Universities are interested in Bitcoin and Ethereum
Korean Universities are interested in Bitcoin and Ethereum

Institutions such as universities and banks also enjoy the benefits of the best Bitcoin wallet. Roger Ver has been speaking to people in the country about blockchain technology, with amazing responses. Shinhan Bank has already begun to implement the transparency benefits of the blockchain into their company. They will start with remittances between China and Korea by applying transparent blockchain technology for family remittance payments.

Bitcoin to rise in South Korea?

We know that the nation wants to lead its way into greater and better technological advances. The president wants Koreans to be perceived as an advanced nation, which is the reason everyone has been pursuing globalization and industrialization. Markets in China, US, and competition are widely being promoted in order to make the nation globally competitive. Korea will then be seen as a competent, and advanced nation by the outside world. In order to accomplish this, Bitcoin can help promote the idea of freedom in the country. After all, the most advanced nations often promote human rights and freedom. This is why the regulations in Korea for Bitcoin and Ethereum wallet will surely be helpful to the growth and perception of the nation. It is sure that Korea wants to promote a libertarian and freedom promoting technology like the blockchain in order to impress others. The benefits of the blockchain will help relieve regulatory pressures in East Asia and promote a world where Bitcoin and Ethereum are widely used in wallets of citizens. It will help bring people to a better and more transparent society.